Saquon Barkley Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Carries

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 14, 2024 10:46 PM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 4 points.
The leading projections forecast the Eagles to be the 2nd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 49.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects Saquon Barkley to accrue 20.4 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
Out of all RBs, Saquon Barkley ranks in the 90th percentile for carries this year, comprising 60.6% of the workload in his team's ground game.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Eagles offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.04 seconds per play.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may suffer.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Washington's group of LBs has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 10th-best in the NFL.