Saquon Barkley Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Carries

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 41.4% rate of running the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-most run-centric offense in football has been the Giants.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Giants are expected by our trusted projection set to call 66.7 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect Saquon Barkley to total 18.7 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Out of all running backs, Saquon Barkley ranks in the 96th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 65.8% of the workload in his offense's ground game.

Favors Under

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on passing than their normal game plan.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
When talking about run-blocking (and the importance it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the New York Giants grades out as the 8th-worst in the league last year.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

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