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Sammy Watkins

Sammy Watkins Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

Sammy Watkins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+199/-270).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.8% pass rate.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Sammy Watkins has been used less as a potential target this season (64.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (48.7%).

Sammy Watkins's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 59.8% to 73.5%.

The Detroit Lions pass defense has surrendered the highest Completion% in football (72.8%) versus wideouts this year (72.8%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a heavy 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Green Bay Packers offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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