Sammy Watkins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Sammy Watkins

NFL · Player Props

Sammy Watkins

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Sammy Watkins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Sammy Watkins's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 59.8% to 70.9%.
Sammy Watkins's pass-catching effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, averaging 11.73 yards-per-target compared to a measly 8.47 rate last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (63.3%) versus wideouts this year (63.3%).
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.26 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in football.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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