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Sammy Watkins

Sammy Watkins Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Sammy Watkins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+215/-329).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +232 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +215.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in football.
  • THE BLITZ projects Sammy Watkins to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (14.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (7.0% in games he has played).
  • The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Green Bay Packers offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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