Samaje Perine Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Samaje Perine

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Samaje Perine Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.0 plays per game.
Samaje Perine has been a more integral piece of his team's running game this year (26.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (12.4%).
Samaje Perine has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (28.0) this year than he did last year (12.0).
The Cleveland Browns defense owns the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing 5.23 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 9th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to call the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Cincinnati Bengals have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals have utilized some form of misdirection on a measly 38.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.