Samaje Perine Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Samaje Perine

NFL · Player Props

Samaje Perine

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Samaje Perine Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+106/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Samaje Perine has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this season (45.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (35.5%).
The projections expect Samaje Perine to earn 3.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Samaje Perine has been among the best RB receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 2.5 receptions per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.
Samaje Perine's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 81.4% to 90.0%.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has been gouged for the 7th-highest Completion% in football (82.9%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (82.9%).

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The projections expect the Denver Broncos as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Broncos to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 59.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: fewest in the NFL.

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