Samaje Perine Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

Samaje Perine

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Samaje Perine Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-103/-133).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast Samaje Perine to garner 2.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 75th percentile when it comes to running backs.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point increase in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Samaje Perine has been more heavily utilized in his offense's pass attack.
With a terrific 2.8 adjusted receptions per game (81st percentile) this year, Samaje Perine rates among the leading running backs in the pass game in the league.
Samaje Perine's 92.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a meaningful growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 81.4% figure.
This year, the anemic Vikings pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 90.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the largest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive strategy to skew 2.0% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Broncos this year (a lowly 53.7 per game on average).
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota's group of safeties has been very good this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in football.