Samaje Perine Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Samaje Perine

NFL · Player Props

Samaje Perine

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Samaje Perine Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Samaje Perine to accrue 3.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among RBs.
Samaje Perine has been a big part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 9.3% this year, which puts him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
Samaje Perine's pass-catching performance gotten a boost this season, accumulating 2.6 yards per game vs just 1.6 last season.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
Samaje Perine's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 84.2% to 81.0%.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebackers project as the 10th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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