Samaje Perine Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Samaje Perine

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

Samaje Perine Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+411/-895).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +436 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +411.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Samaje Perine to be much more involved in his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (14.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.3% in games he has played).
Samaje Perine has been among the most reliable receivers in the league among running backs, hauling in a terrific 89.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile.
Samaje Perine ranks in the 99th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.40 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has given their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.