Sam LaPorta Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Sam LaPorta

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Touchdowns

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 5:07 PM EST

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+229/-290).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -290.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 132.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
The Detroit Lions have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 61.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
With a remarkable 21.3% Red Zone Target Share (91st percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta places among the TEs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.
After accruing 28.0 air yards per game last year, Sam LaPorta has gotten better this year, currently pacing 45.0 per game.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Minnesota Vikings, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 31.3 per game) this year.
Sam LaPorta's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 88.3% to 85.2%.
This year, the tough Vikings defense has allowed a meager 56.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the lowest rate in the league.
This year, the daunting Vikings defense has conceded a feeble 0.00 passing TDs per game to opposing TEs: the lowest rate in the league.

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