Sam LaPorta Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Sam LaPorta

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Touchdowns

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 8:37 PM EST

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+163/-178).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Lions to pass on 61.1% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 137.4 plays on offense called: the most out of all the games this week.
The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 61.8 per game on average).
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
Sam LaPorta has been an integral part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 22.5% this year, which ranks in the 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Sam LaPorta's 84.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this year conveys a material diminishment in his receiving skills over last year's 88.3% rate.
This year, the formidable Green Bay Packers defense has yielded a measly 70.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 7th-lowest rate in the NFL.
This year, the porous Green Bay Packers run defense has surrendered a massive 1.50 rushing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-biggest rate in football.
The Green Bay Packers safeties grade out as the best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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