Sam LaPorta Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Sam LaPorta

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Touchdowns

Detroit Lions vs New York Jets · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 1:12 PM EST

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+203/-213).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Sam LaPorta has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 28.6% this year, which puts him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
Sam LaPorta has put up a colossal 29.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among tight ends.
Sam LaPorta's 36.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 87th percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Lions profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the porous Jets run defense has allowed a whopping 1.05 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 9th-highest rate in the league.

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