Sam LaPorta Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Sam LaPorta

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Touchdowns

Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 12:52 PM EST

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+186/-213).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
When talking about air yards, Sam LaPorta grades out in the lofty 81st percentile among TEs last year, averaging a superb 28.0 per game.
Sam LaPorta's 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 89th percentile for tight ends.
Sam LaPorta grades out as one of the most reliable receivers in football among tight ends, catching a remarkable 88.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 98th percentile.

Favors Under

The Lions are a giant 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the New Orleans Saints, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.3 per game) last year.
The Detroit O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL last year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass game statistics across the board.
Last year, the fierce Saints defense has surrendered a puny 73.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 10th-best rate in football.

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