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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 61.2 plays per game.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.

This week, Sam LaPorta is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 95th percentile among TEs with 6.6 targets.

Sam LaPorta's 42.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 92nd percentile for tight ends.

With an exceptional 4.7 adjusted catches per game (95th percentile) since the start of last season, Sam LaPorta places as one of the leading TE receiving threats in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Lions being a 4-point favorite in this week's game.

The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Cardinals, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 29.2 per game) since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the imposing Cardinals defense has surrendered a mere 70.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 8th-smallest rate in the league.

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