Sam LaPorta Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Sam LaPorta

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 4:46 PM EST

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is implied by the Lions being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
In this week's contest, Sam LaPorta is anticipated by our trusted projection set to place in the 96th percentile when it comes to TEs with 7.1 targets.
With an impressive 22.6% Target% (98th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta places as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads in the league.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Lions profiles as the best in the NFL this year.
Sam LaPorta comes in as one of the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 4.7 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Lions offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.64 seconds per snap.
The Ravens pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (64%) versus TEs this year (64.0%).
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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