Sam LaPorta Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Sam LaPorta

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+130/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Lions to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
The leading projections forecast Sam LaPorta to garner 6.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs.
With a high 21.2% Target Share (95th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta rates as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads in the league.
As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Detroit Lions grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to pass on 54.7% of their plays: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Tampa Bay's LB corps has been very good this year, grading out as the 7th-best in football.

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