Sam LaPorta Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Sam LaPorta

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 8, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-180/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Sam LaPorta to earn 4.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (69.4%) versus TEs since the start of last season (69.4%).
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties grade out as the 7th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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