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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.1 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The 2nd-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Lions since the start of last season (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average).

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

Our trusted projections expect Sam LaPorta to accrue 6.4 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.

The predictive model expects Sam LaPorta to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack in this week's game (18.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (9.0% in games he has played).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 6 points.

The model projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The Seahawks safeties rank as the best unit in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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