Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Sam LaPorta has been on the field for 79.6% of his team's snaps this year, ranking in the 89th percentile when it comes to TEs.
The leading projections forecast Sam LaPorta to earn 6.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.
Sam LaPorta ranks in the 93rd percentile among tight ends this year with a massive 17.7% of his team's air yards accumulated.
The Packers pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Completion% in football (74.8%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (74.8%).

Favors Under

The model projects the Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
The Lions offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.