Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Sam LaPorta

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 46.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 6th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Lions this year (a massive 60.9 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Sam LaPorta to earn 6.7 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 95th percentile when it comes to TEs.
In regards to air yards, Sam LaPorta ranks in the towering 94th percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a monstrous 48.0 per game.
Sam LaPorta's 45.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 95th percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Lions being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 127.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Green Bay Packers, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 33.4 per game) this year.
With a subpar 3.72 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (20th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta rates among the best tight ends in the pass game in the NFL in space.

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