Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Sam LaPorta

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 51.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 51.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the predictive model to run 65.8 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
The 5th-most plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 62.8 per game on average).
The Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (41.0 per game) this year.
In this week's game, Sam LaPorta is anticipated by the projection model to finish in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 7.7 targets.
In regards to air yards, Sam LaPorta ranks in the towering 95th percentile among TEs this year, averaging an impressive 51.0 per game.

Favors Under

The Lions rank as the 10th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.9% pass rate.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.47 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in the league.

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