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Sam Howell

Sam Howell TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders

Sam Howell TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+112/-154).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -154.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 64.9% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.

In this game, Sam Howell is anticipated by the model to total the 5th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.8.

The Patriots defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.

In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Commanders profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to run only 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.

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