Sam Howell TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+112/-154).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 64.9% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
In this game, Sam Howell is anticipated by the model to total the 5th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.8.
The Patriots defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Commanders profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to run only 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.

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