Sam Howell TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-270/+202).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -270 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +202.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 9.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Commanders are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.3 plays per game.
The Denver Broncos cornerbacks project as the 4th-worst CB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 9th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Sam Howell has been among the least accurate QBs in the league since the start of last season with a 56.9% Completion%, checking in at the 15th percentile.
The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 10th-least TDs through the air in football: 1.22 per game since the start of last season.

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