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Sam Howell

Sam Howell TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins

Sam Howell TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+118/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +134 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 12.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are heavy -8.5-point underdogs.

The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 67.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.

Our trusted projections expect Sam Howell to attempt 40.1 passes in this game, on average: the most out of all quarterbacks.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Washington Commanders.

The Dolphins safeties project as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

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