Sam Howell Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 1:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-137/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Commanders, who are favored by 3 points.
With a remarkable tally of 4.37 yards-after-contact (97th percentile), Sam Howell ranks as one of the top running quarterbacks in football this year.
This year, the anemic New York Giants run defense has conceded a whopping 152.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 3rd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Washington Commanders offensive approach to tilt 13.0% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to run on 39.9% of their downs: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
As it relates to blocking for ball-carriers (and the effect it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Commanders profiles as the 6th-worst in the league last year.
The Giants defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best DT corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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