Sam Howell Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Sam Howell Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme running game script is implied by the Commanders being a huge 7.5-point favorite this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.3 total plays called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Commanders this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).
Sam Howell isn't afraid to take off running, comprising 14.1% of his offense's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 76th percentile when it comes to QBs.
This year, the strong New York Giants run defense has yielded a feeble 4.84 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing rushing attacks: the 28th-smallest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Commanders have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 14.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to run on 39.0% of their plays: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
When talking about blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Commanders ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL last year.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, New York's collection of DTs has been fantastic this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.

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