Sam Howell Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Passing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Sam Howell Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 201.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 9.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Commanders are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.3 plays per game.
The Denver Broncos defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.58 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-most in football.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 9th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Sam Howell has been among the least accurate QBs in the league since the start of last season with a 56.9% Completion%, checking in at the 15th percentile.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown good efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 7.15 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in football.

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