Sam Howell Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Passing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 264.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 263.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 264.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 12.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are heavy -8.5-point underdogs.
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 67.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
Our trusted projections expect Sam Howell to attempt 40.1 passes in this game, on average: the most out of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Washington Commanders.
The Dolphins defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.44 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in the league.
The Dolphins safeties project as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

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