Sam Howell Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Pass Attempts

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 6, 2023 1:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.
In this week's contest, Sam Howell is anticipated by the projections to have the 8th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 33.0.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.

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