Sam Howell Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Pass Attempts

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 12.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are heavy -8.5-point underdogs.
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 67.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
Our trusted projections expect Sam Howell to attempt 40.1 passes in this game, on average: the most out of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Washington Commanders.

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