Sam Howell Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Carries

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-109/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Favors Under

The Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders as the 3rd-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 35.1% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to run only 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
In regards to blocking for ball-carriers (and the impact it has on all ground game metrics), the O-line of the Washington Commanders ranks as the 9th-worst in football last year.
As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, New England's safety corps has been terrific this year, profiling as the best in football.

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