Sam Howell Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a massive 61.4 plays per game.
While Sam Howell has accounted for 7.8% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Washington's running game in this week's game at 14.4%.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 10.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders as the 2nd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 35.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to call the 11th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Commanders O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

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