Sam Howell Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 9:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme running game script is implied by the Commanders being a huge 7.5-point favorite this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.3 total plays called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Commanders this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).
Sam Howell isn't afraid to take off running, comprising 14.1% of his offense's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 76th percentile when it comes to QBs.

Favors Under

The Commanders have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 14.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to run on 39.0% of their plays: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
When talking about blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Commanders ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL last year.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, New York's collection of DTs has been fantastic this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.

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