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Sam Ehlinger

Sam Ehlinger TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts

Sam Ehlinger TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +200 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +190.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to use backup QB Sam Ehlinger this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.

The Colts rank as the 8th-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.5% red zone pass rate.

The Indianapolis Colts offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 4th-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Sam Ehlinger to attempt 34.0 passes in this game, on average: the 9th-least of all quarterbacks.

The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in football against the New England Patriots defense this year (65.3%).

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