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Sam Ehlinger

Sam Ehlinger Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts

Sam Ehlinger Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Indianapolis Colts offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Sam Ehlinger to total 5.8 carries in this contest, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.

THE BLITZ projects Sam Ehlinger to be much more involved in his team's run game this week (19.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.1% in games he has played).

The New England Patriots defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to use backup QB Sam Ehlinger this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.

The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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