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Sam Ehlinger

Sam Ehlinger Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 8

Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders

Sam Ehlinger Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+275/-476).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +408 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +275.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Indianapolis Colts have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 64.7 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Sam Ehlinger to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack near the end zone this week (19.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.5% in games he has played).

The Indianapolis Colts have risked going for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Colts have been the 6th-least run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 33.5% red zone run rate.

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year at run-game blocking.

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-least TDs in the league (0.43 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense this year.

The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the 6th-best collection of LBs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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