Sam Ehlinger Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Sam Ehlinger

NFL · Player Props

Sam Ehlinger

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:31 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Ehlinger Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+754/-3817).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -561 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -3817.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 62.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Ehlinger to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game near the end zone this week (13.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (7.1% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders safeties profile as the 32nd-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Colts rank as the 8th-least run-oriented team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 36.1% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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