Sam Ehlinger Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Sam Ehlinger

NFL · Player Props

Sam Ehlinger

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Passing Yards

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Ehlinger Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 198.5 (+125/-156).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 198.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 198.5 @ -156.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to use backup QB Sam Ehlinger this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 4th-most in football.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Ehlinger to attempt 34.0 passes in this game, on average: the 9th-least of all quarterbacks.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in football against the New England Patriots defense this year (65.3%).

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