Sam Ehlinger Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Sam Ehlinger

NFL · Player Props

Sam Ehlinger

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Pass Attempts

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Ehlinger Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+115/-149).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to use backup QB Sam Ehlinger this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 4th-most in football.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Ehlinger to attempt 34.0 passes in this game, on average: the 9th-least of all quarterbacks.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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