Sam Darnold Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Sam Darnold

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Touchdowns

Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 5:07 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+571/-870).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -3477 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -870.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see 131.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
Making up a lowly 0.0% of his team's red zone carries this year (2nd percentile when it comes to QBs), Sam Darnold's lack of mobility makes him no threat in the run game near the goal line.
With an awful ratio of just 0.00 rushing touchdowns per game (3rd percentile), Sam Darnold places among the bottom rushing QBs in football this year.
The Chicago Bears defense has been torched for the 9th-most TDs through the air in football: 1.57 per game this year.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Seahawks being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
The predictive model expects the Seahawks as the 9th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 6th-most run-centric team in the league in the red zone (47.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Seahawks.
Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Chicago Bears, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.7 per game) this year.
Sam Darnold's passing accuracy has tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 67.9% to 64.9%.

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