Sam Darnold Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Sam Darnold

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Touchdowns

Seattle Seahawks vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 8:37 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+809/-852).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 9th-fastest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Seahawks.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually cause increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume.
Sam Darnold is not much of a runner and has accounted for a lowly 0.0% of his team's rushing play calls near the goal line this year, placing him in the 3rd percentile among quarterbacks.
The running TD column reads "0" on Sam Darnold's box scores this year.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-fewest touchdowns in football (0.60 per game) against the Chiefs defense this year.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a running game script.
The predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks as the 8th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the 6th-most run-centric team in football near the end zone (47.0% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Seattle Seahawks.
The leading projections forecast Sam Darnold to attempt 34.3 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 7th-fewest out of all QBs.
Sam Darnold's 63.6% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a meaningful drop-off in his passing precision over last year's 67.9% rate.

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