Sam Darnold Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Sam Darnold

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Touchdowns

Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 15, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+953/-1076).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.
Sam Darnold has not attempted to run the ball himself in the red zone at all this year.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
With a terrific 68.0% Adjusted Completion% (87th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold places among the most on-target quarterbacks in the NFL.
Sam Darnold has run for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest figures in football among quarterbacks (3rd percentile).

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 55.9% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The model projects the Seahawks to be the 6th-most run-centric offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 47.0% red zone run rate.
At a whopping 30.55 seconds per play, the Seahawks offense ranks as the 4th-slowest paced in football (context-neutralized) this year.
The projections expect Sam Darnold to throw 33.1 passes in this contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
This year, the daunting Denver Broncos defense has allowed a meager 65.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 4th-lowest rate in football.

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