Sam Darnold Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Sam Darnold

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Touchdowns

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1076/-1329).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.
Sam Darnold's 73.0% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a substantial progression in his throwing precision over last year's 67.9% mark.
With a terrible ratio of just 0.00 rushing TDs per game (2nd percentile), Sam Darnold has been as one of the worst running QBs in the league since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Seahawks, who are a massive favorite by 7 points.
The predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 10th-most run-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 46.2% red zone run rate.
At the moment, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Seahawks.
Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Chargers, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (just 29.4 per game) since the start of last season.
The predictive model expects Sam Darnold to be a much bigger part of his team's running game near the end zone this week (5.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.0% in games he has played).

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