Sam Darnold TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 15, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -163 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
With a terrific 68.0% Adjusted Completion% (87th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold places among the most on-target quarterbacks in the NFL.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 55.9% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 53.0% red zone pass rate.
At a whopping 30.55 seconds per play, the Seahawks offense ranks as the 4th-slowest paced in football (context-neutralized) this year.
The projections expect Sam Darnold to throw 33.1 passes in this contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
This year, the daunting Denver Broncos defense has allowed a meager 65.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 4th-lowest rate in football.