Sam Darnold TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-132/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -138 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.
Sam Darnold's 73.0% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a substantial progression in his throwing precision over last year's 67.9% mark.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Seahawks, who are a massive favorite by 7 points.
At the moment, the 10th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (53.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Seahawks.
At the moment, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Seahawks.
Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Chargers, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (just 29.4 per game) since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the formidable Chargers defense has conceded a mere 66.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-smallest rate in football.