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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 7

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-132/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect the Vikings to be the 10th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.0% red zone pass rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see 130.4 total plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

This week, Sam Darnold is projected by our trusted projection set to average the 7th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 37.5.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a mere 52.6 per game on average).

Sam Darnold's throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 67.1% to 64.1%.

This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has allowed a puny 65.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.

This year, the stout Lions defense has surrendered a mere 0.80 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-lowest rate in football.

The Lions safeties profile as the best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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