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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings are a 4-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 59.0% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 55.3% red zone pass rate.

With respect to a defense's influence on pace, at 28.14 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Vikings to be the 8th-quickest in football (context-neutralized) at the present time.

Sam Darnold has been one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league this year with an impressive 69.6% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 79th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 28.8 per game) this year.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in the league vs. the New York Jets defense since the start of last season (68.1% Adjusted Completion%).

This year, the strong New York Jets defense has yielded a measly 0.50 passing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.

The Jets linebackers profile as the best LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

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