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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+102/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

At the moment, the 7th-most pass-focused team in football near the end zone (55.9% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Vikings.

When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Green Bay's unit has been dreadful since the start of last season, profiling as the 4th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 8th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Vikings since the start of last season (just 56.4 per game on average).

The Vikings have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Sam Darnold has attempted a measly 9.9 passes per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 7th percentile when it comes to QBs.

Sam Darnold has been among the bottom touchdown throwers in football since the start of last season, averaging a paltry 0.77 per game while ranking in the 24th percentile.

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