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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Minnesota Vikings vs Houston Texans

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-185).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.

The model projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.5% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 55.4% red zone pass rate.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Vikings have called the 8th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 56.5 plays per game.

With a lousy ratio of just 0.50 per game (10th percentile), Sam Darnold rates among the worst TD passers in football since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the stout Houston Texans defense has surrendered a mere 1.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing teams: the best rate in the league.

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Houston's unit has been phenomenal since the start of last season, grading out as the 5th-best in football.

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